NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CALBA ACU
Points 69.9 67.7
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 12.8
Points From Free Throws 15.4 13.4
Shooting CALBA ACU
Field Goals Made 24.2 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 56.4
Field Goal % 44.0% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 44.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 4.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 11.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 15.4 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 18.3
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.4%
Ball Control CALBA ACU
Rebounds 38.7 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 6.6
Turnovers 11.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.3
Steals 3.4 5.7
Fouls 15.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CALBA ACU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 67.4
% of Possessions with CALBA ACU
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 58.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 15.1%
Player Fouled 23.8% 22.2%
Turnover 16.5% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CALBA ACU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 19.4%