NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIU ORU
Points 68.6 67.6
Total Points   136.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 22.4
Points From Free Throws 12.4 10.4
Shooting WIU ORU
Field Goals Made 25.1 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 61.6
Field Goal % 40.5% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 43.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 12.4 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 13.5
Free Throw % 62.4% 77.1%
Ball Control WIU ORU
Rebounds 46.0 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 16.0 7.8
Turnovers 9.8 7.6
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.3
Steals 4.0 5.3
Fouls 11.2 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: W Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIU ORU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 68.8
% of Possessions with WIU ORU
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 28.0%
Player Fouled 21.6% 16.3%
Turnover 14.2% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIU ORU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 39.1% 20.7%