NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAF ARMY
Points 60.4 56.4
Total Points   116.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 25.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 22.6
Points From Free Throws 9.3 8.5
Shooting LAF ARMY
Field Goals Made 21.9 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 53.9
Field Goal % 39.9% 37.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 12.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 41.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 9.3 8.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 14.2
Free Throw % 68.2% 60.0%
Ball Control LAF ARMY
Rebounds 35.0 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.2
Turnovers 9.4 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.1
Steals 6.6 4.9
Fouls 13.1 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAF ARMY
Total Possessions 64.5
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 62.6
% of Possessions with LAF ARMY
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 31.4%
Player Fouled 20.4% 20.3%
Turnover 14.6% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAF ARMY
Shot Blocked 7.7% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 25.1%