NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL LT
Points 65.2 77.4
Total Points   142.6
Points From 2-Pointers 28.4 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 18.6
Points From Free Throws 15.2 21.9
Shooting NORAL LT
Field Goals Made 21.4 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 54.5
Field Goal % 37.2% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 37.9% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 15.2 21.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 31.2
Free Throw % 77.2% 70.3%
Ball Control NORAL LT
Rebounds 31.3 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 11.8
Turnovers 9.6 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.2 5.1
Steals 4.6 5.2
Fouls 18.3 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL LT
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 73.4
% of Possessions with NORAL LT
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 19.8%
Player Fouled 21.1% 26.0%
Turnover 13.7% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL LT
Shot Blocked 9.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 33.4%