NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SELA NWST
Points 71.3 68.5
Total Points   139.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 21.9
Points From Free Throws 17.1 12.1
Shooting SELA NWST
Field Goals Made 23.5 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 57.8
Field Goal % 43.8% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 17.1 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 18.6
Free Throw % 74.0% 64.9%
Ball Control SELA NWST
Rebounds 37.8 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.7
Turnovers 13.1 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.6
Steals 6.5 6.3
Fouls 14.8 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SELA NWST
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 69.7
% of Possessions with SELA NWST
2 Point Attempt 39.0% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 29.2%
Player Fouled 22.0% 21.0%
Turnover 18.6% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SELA NWST
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 34.2% 28.8%