NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL FGCU
Points 70.8 72.9
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 21.8
Points From Free Throws 13.9 13.3
Shooting NORAL FGCU
Field Goals Made 24.5 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 56.6
Field Goal % 42.9% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 13.9 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 19.5
Free Throw % 77.2% 68.1%
Ball Control NORAL FGCU
Rebounds 32.9 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.0
Turnovers 9.0 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.6
Steals 4.8 4.8
Fouls 14.9 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL FGCU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 68.5
% of Possessions with NORAL FGCU
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 25.0%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.7%
Turnover 13.2% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL FGCU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 26.5%