NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LNDNWD MORE
Points 74.8 75.3
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 41.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 14.9
Points From Free Throws 16.3 18.5
Shooting LNDNWD MORE
Field Goals Made 26.2 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 58.0
Field Goal % 43.0% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 16.3 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 24.9
Free Throw % 68.6% 74.2%
Ball Control LNDNWD MORE
Rebounds 37.0 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 12.0
Turnovers 10.0 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.2
Steals 7.2 6.1
Fouls 16.4 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LNDNWD MORE
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 75.9 73.2
% of Possessions with LNDNWD MORE
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 18.0%
Player Fouled 21.0% 22.7%
Turnover 13.8% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LNDNWD MORE
Shot Blocked 5.7% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 34.9% 33.9%