NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL LIB
Points 71.1 77.2
Total Points   148.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 27.2
Points From Free Throws 13.4 13.1
Shooting NORAL LIB
Field Goals Made 25.9 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 56.6
Field Goal % 46.0% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 13.4 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 20.3
Free Throw % 77.2% 64.5%
Ball Control NORAL LIB
Rebounds 32.7 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 7.0
Turnovers 9.3 8.0
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.5
Steals 4.0 3.8
Fouls 16.8 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Liberty

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL LIB
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 68.3
% of Possessions with NORAL LIB
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 30.9%
Player Fouled 21.9% 24.3%
Turnover 13.4% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL LIB
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 21.2%