NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMU SMC
Points 58.2 76.6
Total Points   134.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 44.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 20.8
Points From Free Throws 11.2 11.1
Shooting LMU SMC
Field Goals Made 20.7 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 59.7
Field Goal % 38.9% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.3% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 11.2 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 16.5
Free Throw % 73.7% 67.1%
Ball Control LMU SMC
Rebounds 28.0 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 11.9
Turnovers 9.0 6.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.8
Steals 2.6 5.3
Fouls 13.2 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMU SMC
Total Possessions 64.2
Effective Scoring Chances 61.5 69.9
% of Possessions with LMU SMC
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 24.8%
Player Fouled 21.2% 20.6%
Turnover 14.0% 9.6%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 4.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMU SMC
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 35.5%