NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMU MINN
Points 68.4 77.4
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 22.1
Points From Free Throws 10.5 13.1
Shooting LMU MINN
Field Goals Made 25.2 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 57.5
Field Goal % 42.7% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 10.5 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 19.2
Free Throw % 73.7% 67.9%
Ball Control LMU MINN
Rebounds 33.4 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.8
Turnovers 9.3 6.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.0
Steals 3.3 5.1
Fouls 14.2 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Minnesota

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMU MINN
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 68.9
% of Possessions with LMU MINN
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 18.0% 21.3%
Turnover 13.9% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMU MINN
Shot Blocked 8.7% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 27.1%