NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL ALST
Points 75.5 66.6
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 18.1
Points From Free Throws 19.4 15.7
Shooting NORAL ALST
Field Goals Made 23.8 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 63.7
Field Goal % 42.9% 35.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 38.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 19.4 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 21.7
Free Throw % 77.2% 72.4%
Ball Control NORAL ALST
Rebounds 41.5 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 32.7 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.4
Turnovers 11.0 7.6
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.7
Steals 3.8 5.9
Fouls 15.0 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL ALST
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 76.3
% of Possessions with NORAL ALST
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 24.8%
Player Fouled 25.1% 20.7%
Turnover 15.2% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL ALST
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 25.9%