NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL SDST
Points 71.6 79.0
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 23.4
Points From Free Throws 12.5 17.3
Shooting NORAL SDST
Field Goals Made 25.0 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 55.0
Field Goal % 42.2% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 12.5 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 23.6
Free Throw % 77.2% 73.3%
Ball Control NORAL SDST
Rebounds 32.2 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 7.1
Turnovers 9.3 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.9
Steals 5.1 4.3
Fouls 17.9 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL SDST
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 68.8
% of Possessions with NORAL SDST
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 25.9%
Player Fouled 19.1% 25.4%
Turnover 13.1% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL SDST
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 22.5%