NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SELA CALBA
Points 63.5 69.6
Total Points   133.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 30.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 26.4
Points From Free Throws 11.4 12.9
Shooting SELA CALBA
Field Goals Made 23.2 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 57.3
Field Goal % 42.4% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 30.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 11.4 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 18.6
Free Throw % 74.0% 69.6%
Ball Control SELA CALBA
Rebounds 32.3 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.9
Turnovers 10.3 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.3
Steals 5.1 3.8
Fouls 14.7 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SELA CALBA
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 69.3
% of Possessions with SELA CALBA
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 20.7% 33.6%
Player Fouled 19.9% 22.0%
Turnover 15.4% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SELA CALBA
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 32.4%