NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMU PORT
Points 78.3 70.5
Total Points   148.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 24.8
Points From Free Throws 8.6 10.9
Shooting LMU PORT
Field Goals Made 29.2 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 58.1
Field Goal % 47.1% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 28.6 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 8.6 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 11.7 15.4
Free Throw % 73.7% 70.9%
Ball Control LMU PORT
Rebounds 36.9 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.4
Turnovers 7.0 7.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.2
Steals 3.1 3.1
Fouls 14.5 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMU PORT
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 67.1
% of Possessions with LMU PORT
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 37.0% 31.3%
Player Fouled 17.1% 21.7%
Turnover 10.5% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 4.6% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMU PORT
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 21.3%