NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CLMB UMBC
Points 81.5 80.7
Total Points   162.2
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 45.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.1 26.2
Points From Free Throws 12.2 8.8
Shooting CLMB UMBC
Field Goals Made 30.0 31.6
Field Goals Attempted 66.4 63.6
Field Goal % 45.2% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 22.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 57.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 26.5 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 12.2 8.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 13.0
Free Throw % 71.3% 67.9%
Ball Control CLMB UMBC
Rebounds 37.6 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 7.9
Turnovers 10.2 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.5
Steals 7.8 4.2
Fouls 13.4 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CLMB UMBC
Total Possessions 75.5
Effective Scoring Chances 76.5 71.8
% of Possessions with CLMB UMBC
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 28.5%
Player Fouled 16.5% 17.7%
Turnover 13.5% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CLMB UMBC
Shot Blocked 7.1% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 23.1%