NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL MEM
Points 73.1 86.4
Total Points   159.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 27.0 21.6
Points From Free Throws 14.1 22.6
Shooting NORAL MEM
Field Goals Made 25.0 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 57.4
Field Goal % 40.6% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 14.1 22.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 31.1
Free Throw % 77.2% 72.7%
Ball Control NORAL MEM
Rebounds 32.8 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 11.3
Turnovers 11.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.7
Steals 4.6 6.4
Fouls 18.7 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL MEM
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 76.0
% of Possessions with NORAL MEM
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 22.9%
Player Fouled 20.9% 25.3%
Turnover 15.7% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL MEM
Shot Blocked 8.4% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 33.4%