NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SELA ACU
Points 67.4 72.9
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 14.0
Shooting SELA ACU
Field Goals Made 23.3 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 57.0
Field Goal % 44.0% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 14.3 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 19.1
Free Throw % 74.0% 73.4%
Ball Control SELA ACU
Rebounds 34.9 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 8.6
Turnovers 14.5 10.4
Blocked Shots 1.8 2.0
Steals 5.8 7.3
Fouls 15.6 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Abl Christian

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SELA ACU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 69.0
% of Possessions with SELA ACU
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 25.2%
Player Fouled 21.3% 22.0%
Turnover 20.4% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SELA ACU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 25.2%