NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM USU
Points 76.6 75.5
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 46.0 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 16.9
Points From Free Throws 14.3 16.4
Shooting UNM USU
Field Goals Made 28.4 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 57.5
Field Goal % 43.5% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.0 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 46.8 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 14.3 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 22.6
Free Throw % 72.3% 72.5%
Ball Control UNM USU
Rebounds 37.2 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 8.2
Turnovers 8.4 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.6
Steals 7.1 5.3
Fouls 16.2 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM USU
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 71.0
% of Possessions with UNM USU
2 Point Attempt 53.8% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 22.6%
Player Fouled 19.9% 21.9%
Turnover 11.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM USU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 23.9%