NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM FRES
Points 83.9 65.2
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 50.7 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 19.2
Points From Free Throws 13.1 11.2
Shooting UNM FRES
Field Goals Made 32.1 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.8 56.7
Field Goal % 49.4% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 25.3 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 49.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 13.1 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 16.1
Free Throw % 72.6% 69.6%
Ball Control UNM FRES
Rebounds 40.1 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 7.2
Turnovers 7.7 13.1
Blocked Shots 7.0 2.6
Steals 7.2 4.9
Fouls 13.7 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM FRES
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 76.0 65.3
% of Possessions with UNM FRES
2 Point Attempt 54.0% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 26.1%
Player Fouled 19.4% 19.2%
Turnover 10.8% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM FRES
Shot Blocked 4.8% 10.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.2% 20.7%