NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM FRES
Points 83.5 65.5
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 50.3 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 19.1
Points From Free Throws 13.2 11.3
Shooting UNM FRES
Field Goals Made 31.8 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.8 56.7
Field Goal % 49.1% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 25.2 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 13.2 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 16.3
Free Throw % 72.3% 69.6%
Ball Control UNM FRES
Rebounds 40.3 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 7.2
Turnovers 7.8 13.0
Blocked Shots 7.0 2.6
Steals 7.1 4.9
Fouls 13.8 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM FRES
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 76.2 65.5
% of Possessions with UNM FRES
2 Point Attempt 53.6% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 26.0%
Player Fouled 19.5% 19.3%
Turnover 11.0% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM FRES
Shot Blocked 4.8% 10.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.7% 20.8%