NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM AFA
Points 81.0 63.0
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.3 28.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 24.0
Points From Free Throws 17.5 10.4
Shooting UNM AFA
Field Goals Made 28.7 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 53.8
Field Goal % 49.7% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.3 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 17.5 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 15.2
Free Throw % 72.3% 68.7%
Ball Control UNM AFA
Rebounds 38.7 27.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 7.1
Turnovers 8.4 13.1
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.2
Steals 7.3 5.3
Fouls 14.2 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM AFA
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 62.4
% of Possessions with UNM AFA
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 37.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 31.7%
Player Fouled 23.0% 20.7%
Turnover 12.3% 19.1%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM AFA
Shot Blocked 8.0% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 37.4% 21.1%