NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM SMC
Points 65.9 71.6
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 12.9 20.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 11.7
Shooting UNM SMC
Field Goals Made 23.6 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 60.0
Field Goal % 40.7% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.3 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 13.6 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 14.5 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 17.4
Free Throw % 72.3% 67.1%
Ball Control UNM SMC
Rebounds 31.9 41.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 12.2
Turnovers 8.1 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.8
Steals 6.5 5.5
Fouls 13.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM SMC
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 70.8
% of Possessions with UNM SMC
2 Point Attempt 56.1% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 17.2% 25.2%
Player Fouled 22.4% 19.5%
Turnover 11.7% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM SMC
Shot Blocked 8.2% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 33.5%