NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM CSU
Points 72.2 71.4
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.2 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 18.6
Points From Free Throws 14.7 13.7
Shooting UNM CSU
Field Goals Made 26.2 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 56.2
Field Goal % 42.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 14.7 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.3
Free Throw % 72.3% 74.7%
Ball Control UNM CSU
Rebounds 37.8 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 7.0
Turnovers 8.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.5
Steals 6.3 4.8
Fouls 15.4 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM CSU
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 74.5 66.8
% of Possessions with UNM CSU
2 Point Attempt 54.1% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 26.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 21.7%
Turnover 11.9% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM CSU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 21.5%