NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM UNLV
Points 75.7 70.4
Total Points   146.1
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 17.1
Points From Free Throws 14.1 14.8
Shooting UNM UNLV
Field Goals Made 27.8 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.2 57.1
Field Goal % 43.2% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 44.5 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 14.1 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 20.3
Free Throw % 72.3% 73.0%
Ball Control UNM UNLV
Rebounds 39.3 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 9.1
Turnovers 8.9 11.3
Blocked Shots 5.5 5.0
Steals 7.1 4.8
Fouls 14.7 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM UNLV
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 68.8
% of Possessions with UNM UNLV
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 22.4%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.7%
Turnover 12.5% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM UNLV
Shot Blocked 9.0% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 26.2%