NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM NEV
Points 72.2 71.1
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 17.9
Points From Free Throws 15.9 17.4
Shooting UNM NEV
Field Goals Made 25.3 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 53.6
Field Goal % 41.4% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 15.9 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 24.5
Free Throw % 72.3% 71.2%
Ball Control UNM NEV
Rebounds 37.4 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 8.1
Turnovers 8.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.0
Steals 6.2 5.3
Fouls 18.6 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM NEV
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.2 68.1
% of Possessions with UNM NEV
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 22.4%
Player Fouled 22.5% 26.1%
Turnover 12.4% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM NEV
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 24.2%