NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TEX UNC
Points 71.3 76.6
Total Points   148.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 21.5
Points From Free Throws 12.7 17.5
Shooting TEX UNC
Field Goals Made 26.2 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 60.7
Field Goal % 42.9% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 12.7 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 23.2
Free Throw % 76.5% 75.4%
Ball Control TEX UNC
Rebounds 34.0 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 11.6
Turnovers 9.4 9.1
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.8
Steals 4.8 5.2
Fouls 16.4 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TEX UNC
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 74.5
% of Possessions with TEX UNC
2 Point Attempt 50.9% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 22.4%
Player Fouled 20.1% 22.8%
Turnover 13.0% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TEX UNC
Shot Blocked 6.4% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 30.8%