NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFA NMSU
Points 72.8 65.9
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 31.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 19.5
Points From Free Throws 22.1 15.3
Shooting SFA NMSU
Field Goals Made 21.9 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 52.4
Field Goal % 42.0% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 22.1 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 31.4 23.4
Free Throw % 70.3% 65.5%
Ball Control SFA NMSU
Rebounds 37.6 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 9.2
Turnovers 11.7 13.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.1
Steals 7.8 5.8
Fouls 17.2 21.4

Playing Style Advantage: Ste F Austin

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFA NMSU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 67.4
% of Possessions with SFA NMSU
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 23.3%
Player Fouled 29.8% 23.9%
Turnover 16.3% 19.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFA NMSU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 26.1%