NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAU IDST
Points 67.1 72.9
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 14.6
Points From Free Throws 12.3 15.8
Shooting NAU IDST
Field Goals Made 24.8 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 56.0
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 15.4 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 12.3 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 22.6
Free Throw % 69.2% 70.0%
Ball Control NAU IDST
Rebounds 30.8 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 10.5
Turnovers 12.0 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.3
Steals 4.8 7.3
Fouls 17.2 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAU IDST
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 70.0
% of Possessions with NAU IDST
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 19.8% 21.1%
Player Fouled 21.8% 25.1%
Turnover 17.4% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAU IDST
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 31.2%