NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAU MTST
Points 69.1 76.9
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.1 14.5
Shooting NAU MTST
Field Goals Made 24.8 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 56.4
Field Goal % 45.1% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 56.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 14.1 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.0
Free Throw % 69.2% 72.4%
Ball Control NAU MTST
Rebounds 33.1 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 6.8
Turnovers 12.3 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.2
Steals 4.8 8.2
Fouls 16.8 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAU MTST
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 68.3
% of Possessions with NAU MTST
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 25.4%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.3%
Turnover 17.2% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAU MTST
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 21.5%