NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFA CALBA
Points 69.1 67.4
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 28.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.3 21.0
Points From Free Throws 14.8 17.8
Shooting SFA CALBA
Field Goals Made 24.8 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 51.2
Field Goal % 45.3% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 13.7 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 14.8 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 25.6
Free Throw % 70.3% 69.6%
Ball Control SFA CALBA
Rebounds 32.2 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.8
Turnovers 11.2 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.6
Steals 6.5 4.1
Fouls 18.4 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFA CALBA
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 67.5
% of Possessions with SFA CALBA
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.1% 23.3%
Player Fouled 24.9% 26.2%
Turnover 16.0% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFA CALBA
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 31.5%