NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAU PEPP
Points 69.9 77.1
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 20.6
Points From Free Throws 9.5 14.3
Shooting NAU PEPP
Field Goals Made 26.2 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.3 56.1
Field Goal % 41.4% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.9 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 9.5 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 20.3
Free Throw % 66.2% 70.6%
Ball Control NAU PEPP
Rebounds 35.0 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 7.0
Turnovers 8.7 8.8
Blocked Shots 1.4 3.2
Steals 5.0 5.1
Fouls 15.2 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAU PEPP
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 68.6
% of Possessions with NAU PEPP
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 24.2%
Player Fouled 17.9% 21.7%
Turnover 12.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAU PEPP
Shot Blocked 5.7% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 22.0%