NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW MOSU
Points 70.6 73.4
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 19.6
Points From Free Throws 10.1 13.9
Shooting PFW MOSU
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 65.2 56.3
Field Goal % 39.3% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 10.1 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 19.7
Free Throw % 71.8% 70.3%
Ball Control PFW MOSU
Rebounds 31.5 42.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 33.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.1
Turnovers 7.8 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 7.9 3.7
Fouls 14.9 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW MOSU
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 68.6
% of Possessions with PFW MOSU
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 33.5% 24.7%
Player Fouled 17.3% 20.4%
Turnover 10.7% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW MOSU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 27.6%