NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW NDSU
Points 80.4 71.1
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 44.5 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 21.6
Points From Free Throws 10.9 13.2
Shooting PFW NDSU
Field Goals Made 30.6 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 52.4
Field Goal % 50.2% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 10.9 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 17.8
Free Throw % 71.8% 74.1%
Ball Control PFW NDSU
Rebounds 29.4 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 6.1
Turnovers 7.7 14.9
Blocked Shots 3.8 1.1
Steals 8.0 3.2
Fouls 15.3 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: IPFW

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW NDSU
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 63.0
% of Possessions with PFW NDSU
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 24.5%
Player Fouled 17.9% 21.3%
Turnover 10.7% 20.7%
Opponent Steal 4.5% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.2% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 18.6% 20.9%