NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW SDAK
Points 85.3 72.2
Total Points   157.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.3 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 31.3 22.5
Points From Free Throws 11.6 13.5
Shooting PFW SDAK
Field Goals Made 31.6 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 65.9 54.4
Field Goal % 48.0% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 11.6 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 17.7
Free Throw % 71.8% 76.4%
Ball Control PFW SDAK
Rebounds 32.1 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 6.8
Turnovers 6.5 15.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 1.2
Steals 9.0 2.7
Fouls 15.1 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: South Dakota

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW SDAK
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 65.3
% of Possessions with PFW SDAK
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 23.9%
Player Fouled 18.3% 20.3%
Turnover 8.7% 21.3%
Opponent Steal 3.7% 12.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW SDAK
Shot Blocked 2.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 22.1%