NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW FGCU
Points 73.1 67.7
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 29.9 22.2
Points From Free Throws 10.8 10.0
Shooting PFW FGCU
Field Goals Made 26.2 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 54.0
Field Goal % 44.3% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 10.8 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 14.7
Free Throw % 71.8% 68.1%
Ball Control PFW FGCU
Rebounds 30.6 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 7.7
Turnovers 9.3 14.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.0
Steals 8.3 5.4
Fouls 13.3 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: IPFW

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW FGCU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 63.6
% of Possessions with PFW FGCU
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 34.8% 26.4%
Player Fouled 18.2% 18.9%
Turnover 13.2% 20.6%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW FGCU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 24.5%