NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW NKU
Points 76.6 72.8
Total Points   149.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 18.6
Points From Free Throws 11.0 15.0
Shooting PFW NKU
Field Goals Made 27.9 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 55.5
Field Goal % 45.8% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 57.1% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 29.4 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 11.0 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 20.5
Free Throw % 71.8% 73.1%
Ball Control PFW NKU
Rebounds 32.7 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.0
Turnovers 11.7 14.2
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.0
Steals 7.9 6.9
Fouls 15.8 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW NKU
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 68.2
% of Possessions with PFW NKU
2 Point Attempt 37.9% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 35.4% 22.9%
Player Fouled 18.3% 21.2%
Turnover 15.8% 19.1%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW NKU
Shot Blocked 3.6% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 24.3%