NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PFW SEMO
Points 79.3 63.5
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 16.1
Points From Free Throws 16.1 10.9
Shooting PFW SEMO
Field Goals Made 28.3 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 57.0
Field Goal % 49.1% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 58.0% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 29.2%
Free Throws Made 16.1 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 15.4
Free Throw % 71.8% 70.6%
Ball Control PFW SEMO
Rebounds 35.0 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 14.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.2
Steals 8.7 4.3
Fouls 14.2 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: SE Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PFW SEMO
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 66.8
% of Possessions with PFW SEMO
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 23.6% 19.3%
Turnover 13.1% 19.9%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PFW SEMO
Shot Blocked 4.0% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 22.3%