NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSN ORST
Points 69.0 73.4
Total Points   142.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.6 21.7
Points From Free Throws 15.2 18.4
Shooting CSN ORST
Field Goals Made 24.5 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 54.2
Field Goal % 42.6% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 15.2 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 25.0
Free Throw % 67.7% 73.5%
Ball Control CSN ORST
Rebounds 36.3 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.4
Turnovers 12.3 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.3
Steals 6.1 6.8
Fouls 21.2 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSN ORST
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 69.7
% of Possessions with CSN ORST
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 26.9%
Player Fouled 23.8% 29.0%
Turnover 16.9% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSN ORST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 24.4%