NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSN FRES
Points 73.9 71.0
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 45.4 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 25.9
Points From Free Throws 12.5 14.4
Shooting CSN FRES
Field Goals Made 28.1 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 55.8
Field Goal % 46.7% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 26.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 12.5 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 20.7
Free Throw % 67.7% 69.6%
Ball Control CSN FRES
Rebounds 38.5 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 7.6
Turnovers 11.3 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.5
Steals 5.9 6.8
Fouls 17.8 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSN FRES
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 68.0
% of Possessions with CSN FRES
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 36.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.4% 32.2%
Player Fouled 20.9% 24.7%
Turnover 15.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSN FRES
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 21.6%