NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSN UCSB
Points 75.0 72.9
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 45.6 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.8 19.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 19.3
Shooting CSN UCSB
Field Goals Made 27.8 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 53.3
Field Goal % 46.1% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 44.4 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 14.5 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 25.7
Free Throw % 67.7% 75.0%
Ball Control CSN UCSB
Rebounds 35.4 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.4
Turnovers 10.4 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.7
Steals 7.0 5.8
Fouls 19.5 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSN UCSB
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 68.9
% of Possessions with CSN UCSB
2 Point Attempt 52.3% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 23.6%
Player Fouled 22.7% 26.3%
Turnover 14.0% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSN UCSB
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 22.1%