NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSN CSF
Points 70.1 67.8
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 27.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 22.4
Points From Free Throws 15.4 17.9
Shooting CSN CSF
Field Goals Made 24.9 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 53.5
Field Goal % 44.2% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 15.4 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 25.1
Free Throw % 67.7% 71.1%
Ball Control CSN CSF
Rebounds 38.7 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 7.8
Turnovers 12.4 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.2
Steals 6.0 7.1
Fouls 19.7 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSN CSF
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 68.8
% of Possessions with CSN CSF
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 36.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 29.1%
Player Fouled 24.1% 27.1%
Turnover 17.0% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSN CSF
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 21.6%