NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA TXST
Points 74.0 67.3
Total Points   141.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 12.5
Points From Free Throws 19.0 18.3
Shooting UTA TXST
Field Goals Made 23.7 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.3 53.6
Field Goal % 45.3% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 29.7 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 4.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 12.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 19.0 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 26.0
Free Throw % 73.6% 70.3%
Ball Control UTA TXST
Rebounds 35.8 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.7
Turnovers 14.7 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.1
Steals 7.3 7.2
Fouls 18.9 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA TXST
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 69.5
% of Possessions with UTA TXST
2 Point Attempt 35.1% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 15.0%
Player Fouled 25.4% 25.8%
Turnover 20.0% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA TXST
Shot Blocked 6.0% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 27.4%