NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM MTST
Points 70.8 76.4
Total Points   147.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 30.6
Points From Free Throws 19.1 12.4
Shooting NEOM MTST
Field Goals Made 23.4 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 55.3
Field Goal % 44.5% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 19.1 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 17.1
Free Throw % 75.0% 72.4%
Ball Control NEOM MTST
Rebounds 33.3 30.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 5.8
Turnovers 10.2 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.8 2.0
Steals 5.2 6.1
Fouls 15.8 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM MTST
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 65.7
% of Possessions with NEOM MTST
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 38.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 33.0%
Player Fouled 25.9% 22.4%
Turnover 14.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM MTST
Shot Blocked 3.6% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 18.6%