NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA HOU
Points 57.6 80.0
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 18.9 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 23.8
Points From Free Throws 17.4 18.0
Shooting UTA HOU
Field Goals Made 16.6 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 47.5 60.3
Field Goal % 34.8% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 9.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 24.2 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 39.1% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 17.4 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 25.3
Free Throw % 73.6% 71.1%
Ball Control UTA HOU
Rebounds 33.5 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 14.1
Turnovers 17.9 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 6.0
Steals 4.3 9.5
Fouls 17.6 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA HOU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 76.2
% of Possessions with UTA HOU
2 Point Attempt 29.3% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 25.5%
Player Fouled 25.4% 25.1%
Turnover 25.5% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 13.5% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA HOU
Shot Blocked 10.0% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 37.5%