NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM DAY
Points 61.2 80.9
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 31.9
Points From Free Throws 10.8 15.1
Shooting NEOM DAY
Field Goals Made 22.2 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 52.7
Field Goal % 38.8% 52.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 28.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.5% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.8% 43.0%
Free Throws Made 10.8 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 20.3
Free Throw % 75.0% 74.7%
Ball Control NEOM DAY
Rebounds 29.1 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 6.7
Turnovers 8.8 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.8 2.9
Steals 4.5 4.7
Fouls 15.4 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM DAY
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 65.0
% of Possessions with NEOM DAY
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 37.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 33.3%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.0%
Turnover 13.2% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM DAY
Shot Blocked 5.6% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 23.9%