NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM DAY
Points 63.7 89.4
Total Points   153.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 33.7
Points From Free Throws 10.9 13.3
Shooting NEOM DAY
Field Goals Made 23.7 32.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 61.6
Field Goal % 39.7% 52.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 61.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 27.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 41.4%
Free Throws Made 10.9 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 18.2
Free Throw % 68.8% 72.9%
Ball Control NEOM DAY
Rebounds 32.3 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 8.9
Turnovers 13.8 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.8
Steals 3.9 5.8
Fouls 15.7 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM DAY
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 72.6
% of Possessions with NEOM DAY
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 32.4%
Player Fouled 18.6% 21.3%
Turnover 18.7% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM DAY
Shot Blocked 8.0% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 27.9%