NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA UCSB
Points 79.1 71.2
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 15.9
Points From Free Throws 16.8 19.4
Shooting UTA UCSB
Field Goals Made 26.8 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 51.1
Field Goal % 46.0% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 50.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 16.8 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 25.9
Free Throw % 73.6% 75.0%
Ball Control UTA UCSB
Rebounds 34.1 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 7.2
Turnovers 10.9 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.6
Steals 7.2 5.1
Fouls 19.3 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA UCSB
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 66.7
% of Possessions with UTA UCSB
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 18.8%
Player Fouled 24.0% 26.3%
Turnover 14.9% 18.9%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA UCSB
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 23.0%