NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM SDST
Points 67.8 76.8
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 28.2
Points From Free Throws 13.6 12.9
Shooting NEOM SDST
Field Goals Made 23.3 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 55.0
Field Goal % 41.4% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 13.6 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 17.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 73.3%
Ball Control NEOM SDST
Rebounds 31.4 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 6.6
Turnovers 9.1 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.3
Steals 5.8 4.7
Fouls 15.8 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: S Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM SDST
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 65.7
% of Possessions with NEOM SDST
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 31.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 23.0%
Turnover 13.2% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM SDST
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 21.6%