NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM DEN
Points 78.1 77.9
Total Points   156.0
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 28.9
Points From Free Throws 18.5 14.8
Shooting NEOM DEN
Field Goals Made 26.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 58.5
Field Goal % 46.8% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 26.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 18.5 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 20.9
Free Throw % 75.0% 70.7%
Ball Control NEOM DEN
Rebounds 35.3 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 8.2
Turnovers 8.4 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.0
Steals 4.4 4.8
Fouls 16.0 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM DEN
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 71.0
% of Possessions with NEOM DEN
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 32.9%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.2%
Turnover 11.6% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM DEN
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 23.4%