NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA ARK
Points 75.4 78.9
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 16.8
Points From Free Throws 20.9 25.3
Shooting UTA ARK
Field Goals Made 23.5 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 52.6
Field Goal % 40.8% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 20.9 25.3
Free Throws Attempted 28.5 33.1
Free Throw % 73.6% 76.5%
Ball Control UTA ARK
Rebounds 36.4 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 7.9
Turnovers 13.4 12.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.5
Steals 6.1 6.4
Fouls 23.3 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA ARK
Total Possessions 76.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 72.6
% of Possessions with UTA ARK
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 19.5%
Player Fouled 25.6% 30.4%
Turnover 17.5% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA ARK
Shot Blocked 10.6% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 23.9%