NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA ARST
Points 81.0 78.2
Total Points   159.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 27.1
Points From Free Throws 17.8 17.4
Shooting UTA ARST
Field Goals Made 27.7 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 61.2
Field Goal % 46.6% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 17.8 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 24.7
Free Throw % 73.6% 70.2%
Ball Control UTA ARST
Rebounds 37.5 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 12.6
Turnovers 11.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.6
Steals 6.0 5.2
Fouls 16.9 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA ARST
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 76.2
% of Possessions with UTA ARST
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 29.1%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.8%
Turnover 14.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA ARST
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 32.2%