NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA ARST
Points 71.2 83.9
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 29.8
Points From Free Throws 16.9 17.0
Shooting UTA ARST
Field Goals Made 23.1 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 61.9
Field Goal % 39.4% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 26.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 16.9 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 23.4
Free Throw % 67.9% 72.3%
Ball Control UTA ARST
Rebounds 36.5 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.6
Turnovers 10.8 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.7
Steals 4.2 6.2
Fouls 15.5 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA ARST
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 76.5
% of Possessions with UTA ARST
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 30.2%
Player Fouled 24.1% 21.4%
Turnover 14.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA ARST
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 33.8%